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2025-1-15 14:23:42
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本篇最後由 S.O.H 於 2025-1-15 14:27 編輯
貪婪篇:
https://www.jkforum.net/thread-19497098-1-1.html
自我懷疑篇:
https://www.jkforum.net/thread-19541985-1-1.html
恐懼篇:
https://www.jkforum.net/thread-19654583-1-1.html
極端情緒,若說鐘擺的一端是「恐懼」,另一側就是「過度自信」
與前者最大的差異,是人因不可逆的天性,造成自大的頻次與程度超乎想像
換句話說,所有的失敗都涉及過度自信,只是多數人沒有清楚意識到
人的主觀意識會朝極端偏移與強固,直至崩毀然後反轉
當行為與價值觀發生衝突,會嘗試改變信念,降低認知失調帶來的不適
資訊累積的過程中,能力提升的界限趕不上信心膨脹的速度,造成過度自信的心理與行為:
「令人即使在不該行動時,也採取行動」
「知道」不等於「懂」,跟「做到」也有實質上的區別,時下大眾的通病在於:徒具空洞抱負與幻想,缺乏務實行動
科技創新助長自信(尊)型塑,忽略社會菁英比例(不超過5%),在競逐中失勢,尤以自卑者為最
進入市場不能只想著穩贏,而該思考萬一誤判局勢,是否有備案能助自己脫離險境
這是謙遜,也是自知之明,在關鍵時刻總能發揮價值
人們常高估自己、低估他人,群體存在不一致的「自信」與「認知」,故最好決策永遠不會是決議
不良情緒將影響優質決斷、摧毀財富積累,應預想可能發展,透過風險管理避免壓倒性虧損
提升「複雜性」能激發重新思考,瓦解刻意簡化的濫觴,以高維度跨越現實困境
投資獲利或許不難,但絕非簡單到人人皆可上手
「低進入門檻」是顯而易見的陷阱,投資人儘管明白,卻總像自然界的動物般,成為獵人的餌食
Extreme emotions, if one end of the pendulum is "fear", the other side will be "overconfidence".
The biggest difference from the former is that the frequency and degree of arrogance caused by human beings' irreversible nature are beyond imagination.
In other words, all failure involves overconfidence, but most people don’t realize it clearly.
Human subjective consciousness will deflect and strengthen to extremes until it collapses and then reverses.
When behavior conflicts with values, attempts will be made to change beliefs and reduce the discomfort caused by cognitive dissonance.
In the process of accumulating information, the limit of ability improvement cannot keep up with the speed of confidence expansion, resulting in overconfidence in psychology and behavior:
"Makes people take action even when they shouldn't."
"Knowing" is not the same as "understanding", and there is a substantial difference between "knowing" and "doing". The common problem among the public nowadays is that they have empty ambitions and illusions, as well as lack of pragmatic actions.
Technological innovation promotes self-confidence/esteem, ignoring the proportion of social elites (not exceeding 5%), and losing ground in the competition, especially those with low self-esteem.
When entering the market, you should not just think about a sure win, but you should also think about whether there is a back-up plan to help you out of danger if you misjudge the situation.
This is humility and self-knowledge, which can always be of value at critical moments.
People often overestimate themselves and underestimate others, and groups have inconsistent "confidence" and "cognition", so the best decision will never be the final conclusion.
Bad emotions will affect quality decisions and destroy wealth accumulation. You should anticipate possible developments and avoid overwhelming losses through risk management.
Improving "complexity" can inspire rethinking, break down the origins of deliberate simplification, and overcome real difficulties with high dimensions.
It may not be difficult to make a profit from investing, but it is by no means so simple that everyone can get started.
"Low entry barrier" is an obvious trap. Even though investors understand it, they always become prey for hunters like animals in nature. |
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