JKF 捷克論壇

搜尋
查看: 1257 | 回覆: 3 | 跳轉到指定樓層
S.O.H
高級版主 | 2025-7-10 17:53:32

本篇最後由 S.O.H 於 2025-7-10 17:56 編輯

圖片1.png
第一階:觀點
https://www.jkforum.net/thread-19786732-1-1.html
第二階:線性投射
https://www.jkforum.net/thread-19863241-1-1.html
第三階:周延
https://www.jkforum.net/thread-19875542-1-1.html
第四階:具象體現
https://www.jkforum.net/thread-20110973-1-1.html
第五階:時空念想
https://www.jkforum.net/thread-20184644-1-1.html


目前認知的思維,共有六階
這讓我財務自主、脫離職場,具備選擇理想生活的權利
時常反思,仍處職涯禁錮的多數人,為何無法識別自身的缺陷!?
儘管偶遇窒礙、苦痛,也應砥礪前行,而非將就
可曾想過:一條人跡罕至的大道,就在路口轉角,惟須通關密碼
本篇,關乎最後一組詞術(註:如願之境)

事態發展是由一系列隨機事件組成的連鎖,擁有不同的發生機率,所有可能性都將匯聚,形成不可逆的結果
成功是由自身價值和運氣堆砌,其比例會影響實現機率,但無法直接推演出結論
在正確的方向上持續堅持,在相近的脈絡下尋求異變,就能放大成功/促發機率

在所有涉及機率的領域裡(如:投資),長期表現較好的人,都注重決策過程,結果次之
投資是廣義的機率遊戲,沒有人能做出百分百正確的預測;追求確定性,正是應對風險的最大障礙
任何投資方式均無法保證成功,最佳策略就是採獲利機率最高的投資組合,維持流動性不減

優秀的投資人永遠都從「機率」的角度思考,然「倖存者偏差」總讓人高估勝算
一次/重複性的操作屬於機率範疇,成事在天;若想獲勝,就該不斷優化與再執行,操之在己
成功機率高低與「反覆嘗試突破」的決心有關,隨年齡增長而起的「保守心態」,是錯失進步的間接原因:
「心理素質差、認知淺薄者,贏的機率趨近於無」

人們經常以「相似性」或「代表性」替代合理的機率思考,使判斷偏誤的情況加劇
理性(智)會因恐懼與貪婪而質變,惟可藉紀律、高度認知、心理素質抗衡
「改善決策品質,不斷精進,是唯一可靠(控)的做法」
「若你連自己都無法控制,還能控制什麼?」

There are six levels of thinking in my current cognition.
This has allowed me to be financially independent, to leave the workplace, and to have the right to choose an ideal life.
I often reflect on why most people who are still trapped in their careers cannot recognize their own flaws!?
Despite the occasional obstacles and pain, we should forge ahead instead of giving in.
Have you ever thought: a road that is rarely traveled is just around the corner, but you need to enter the password?
This article is about the last set of words. (note: Wishful Paradise)

The development of events is a chain of random events with different probabilities of occurrence. All possibilities will converge to form an irreversible result.
Success is a combination of one's own value and luck. The proportion will affect the probability of realization, but the conclusion cannot be directly deduced.
Continue to persist in the right direction and seek changes in a similar context to amplify the probability of success/triggering.

In all fields involving probability (such as investment), people who perform well in the long term focus on the decision-making process, and the results are secondary.
Investment is a game of probability in a broad sense. No one can make a 100% correct prediction. The pursuit of certainty is the biggest obstacle to dealing with risks.
No investment method can guarantee success. The best strategy is to adopt an investment portfolio with the highest probability of profit and maintain liquidity.

Excellent investors always think from the perspective of "probability", but "survivor bias" always makes people overestimate their chances of winning.
One-time/repetitive operations belong to the category of probability, which depends on fate; if you want to win, you should constantly optimize and re-execute, which is up to you.
The success rate is related to the determination of "repeated attempts to break through". The "conservative mentality" that arises with age is an indirect reason for missing progress:
"Those with poor psychological quality and shallow cognition have no chance of winning."

People often use "similarity" or "representativeness" to replace reasonable probability thinking, which exacerbates the situation of judgment errors.
Rationality (intelligence) will change qualitatively due to fear and greed, but it can be countered by discipline, high cognition, and psychological quality.
"Constantly improving the quality of decision-making is the only reliable (controllable) approach."
"If you can't even control yourself, what else can you control?"

評分

已有 5 人評分名聲 金幣 收起 理由
ewsnewsn + 10 我很認同+1
A_long + 10 樓主太有才啦!
comsci + 30 + 30 樓主太有才啦!
鄭玄琦 + 30 + 30 樓主太有才啦!
toradora99 + 30 樓主太有才啦!

總評分: 名聲 + 110  金幣 + 60   查看全部評分

分享分享 收藏收藏
FB分享
成為撼動市場的力量,予人選擇自主的權利
回覆 使用道具
鄭玄琦
高級版主 | 2025-7-10 20:17:38

在正確的方向上持續堅持
多閱讀有用的書籍
找尋正確的方向上持續堅持

評分

已有 2 人評分名聲 金幣 收起 理由
comsci + 30 + 30 我很認同+1
S.O.H + 30 + 30 感謝大大分享

總評分: 名聲 + 60  金幣 + 60   查看全部評分

引言 使用道具
comsci
高級超級版主 | 2025-7-10 20:51:52

感謝S大分享六維認知(第六階:機率), 對投資者很有助益~

評分

已有 2 人評分名聲 金幣 收起 理由
S.O.H + 30 + 30 感謝大大分享
鄭玄琦 + 30 + 30 感謝大大分享

總評分: 名聲 + 60  金幣 + 60   查看全部評分

引言 使用道具
A_long
伯爵 | 2025-7-11 09:49:54

由衷感謝樓主辛苦無私的分享

評分

已有 1 人評分名聲 金幣 收起 理由
S.O.H + 6 + 6 感謝大大分享

總評分: 名聲 + 6  金幣 + 6   查看全部評分

引言 使用道具
您需要登入後才可以回覆 登入 | 加入會員

建議立即更新瀏覽器 Chrome 95, Safari 15, Firefox 93, Edge 94。為維護帳號安全,電腦作業系統建議規格使用Windows7(含)以上。
回頂部 下一篇文章 放大 正常倒序 快速回覆 回到列表